The long wait for college basketball to return ended earlier this week. Many casual or recreational bettors wait until March Madness fills in brackets and descends into the college hoop. But the wise people couldn’t wait to start betting.
Like NBA, professional football, and college football, college hoops are primarily spread and over / undersports. Assuming the standard -110 juice, this means that the bettor needs to win 52.38 percent of play to reach the break-even point. More than that means you are making a profit.
The college hoop is unique due to the large number of Division I teams — a whopping 353. This means that not all games are created the same. Therefore, we need to change our approach. Games aired nationwide between North Carolina and Duke get massive betting action, while radar-based matches between Vermont and Albany make almost zero public bets. Attract.
Popular, high-stakes games offer excellent contrarian value, along with shaded lines and a soft recreational market to take advantage of them. Low-bet games, on the other hand, are worth the contrarian that doesn’t exist because there isn’t enough public bias to bet. However, only edgy pros are betting on Incarnate Word-Abilene Christian Under, making it easier to spot sharp line movements, reducing the total from 145 to 142.
Let’s discuss some useful tips for bettors to get started with the right foot.
Bet on Neutral Court Under: Many teams play early season tournaments. These games are usually played on a neutral court. Historically, neutral courts offer a great advantage in betting under. why? Young college athletes are unfamiliar with foreign backboards, shooting backgrounds, gazes, and other unfamiliar environments. This leads to games with low scores.
Bet on the expensive and widespread under: The NBA considers a high total to be around 220 or higher. In college, it’s like 150. Under is often a wise bet when looking at large spreads (-15 and above) along with high totals (150 and above). Opportunities are greater, slower to take your feet off the gas, and can lead to low-scoring trash time. This undertrend is making a significant profit in Gonzaga against inferior conference opponents.
Fast paced over: The public is biased towards betting over because they want to see high-scoring and entertaining games. Sportsbooks know this and shade the numbers higher. Therefore, the expanded under is more valuable in vacuum. If you’re looking to bet over, focus on the team that plays at a fast tempo. The faster the pace, the more possession and scoring opportunities you have. We will also focus on the team that shoots 3 well and hits a high percentage of free throws.
Bet on the masses in big games: Contrarian is a wise long-term strategy, as the masses often lose and the home wins. However, you can only bet on the masses in large games that feature mass behavior. As a rule of thumb, look for nationally aired games featuring well-known schools and ranked teams. We will also focus on big conference confrontations at SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East and Pac-12. If the people are unilaterally heavy, supporting dogs against the opposition adds value.
Big Road Conference’Dog: Conference play gives the vulnerable a great advantage. Built-in friendliness helps level the playing field and help teams score points. This is especially true when you’re on the go, as the general public overestimates the advantages of home courts. Double-digit conference dogs have also historically been a wise bet to prefer line movements (think +17 to +15).
Bet on top ranked teams: Public bettors love betting on high-ranking teams. This leads to shading and bulging lines, providing added value to bet on these teams, especially the top five teams. Also, consider buying unranked teams and ranked teams lower. The worst case is when an unranked team takes precedence over a ranked team. The public most often falls into the trap of taking a ranked team. But if it looks too good to be true, it’s almost always true.
Situation spot: Always pay attention to your schedule, especially the spots that are contextual. You may like to play with a lower team just before a major match against your rivals. This is known as a look-ahead spot. This means that your favorites can be distracted and become a good team for betting. Always bet on the team that has just caused a great deal of confusion. The public tries to help them in the next game, which often creates a disappointing situation.
Leaning on Kempomeroi: If you’re serious about betting college hoops, Ken Pom membership provides the best analysis and power rankings, along with predicted scores for each game.
Useful betting tips as the college basketball season begins
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