But infectious disease experts say the end may be on the horizon. perhaps.
Well, let’s say it’s not outside the realm of 2022 potential.
“If we do it right, I think it will be 2022, when COVID will not dominate our lives so much,” said Dr. Tom Frieden, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Obama is currently the CEO and President of Resolve to Save Lives.
The next part of the pandemic will be and when it will occur with Dr. Yvonne Maldonado, an epidemiologist and infectious disease expert at Stanford University, as well as federal agencies, academia colleagues, and local public health leaders. An expert spent his vacation. Find out.
There was a general consensus among experts on what would happen next: “We don’t really know exactly,” Maldonado said.
There are disease models and lessons from past pandemics, but the way highly infectious variants of Omicron emerged meant that the crystal ball of the scientist saying was a bit hazy.
“None of us really expected Omicron,” Maldonado said. “Well, I had a hint, but I didn’t expect it to happen.”
Omicron has done a lot. According to data from Johns Hopkins University, more than a quarter of all COVID-19 pandemics in the United States have been reported during the Omicron surge over the past month.
As of Thursday, cases decreased by at least 10% in 14 states compared to last week, while cases increased by at least 10% in 26 states, according to Johns Hopkins data.
The waves seem to have peaked in some areas of the United States, such as Boston and New York, where Omicron variants were first hit. But it is still out of control and raging in other parts of the country.
In Georgia, for example, medical leaders in Metro Atlanta said hospitals are still overwhelming. With so many staff ill, the National Guard is now closing medical disparities in states like Minnesota. Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards said that “a tremendous amount” of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths have resulted in “the unprecedented number of cases in Louisiana.” Said.
However, infectious disease experts find hope in what happened in South Africa.
“Something like a canary in a South African coal mine was able to pick up a variant of Omicron first,” Maldonado said.
South African scientists first discovered this variant in November. The cases there peaked and soon fell. They did the same in the UK. And that’s what professionals think happens everywhere.
Dr. John Swartsburg, an infectious disease and vaccine science expert and professor emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley, said: Faculty of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley. “It will be around mid-February that we will actually see that things are getting better.”
If this spike burns quickly, many experts believe that there may be a “quiet period”.
Swartzberg believes that from March to spring or summer it will be the same as last year and the number of cases will continue to decline. “There is an optimistic view, and then we will be able to do more in our lives,” Swartsburg said. “I think May or June will really look for us. I’m pretty optimistic.”
Part of his optimism is that there is a much larger immune population between the increasing number of people receiving vaccinations and boosts and those who caught COVID-19 during the Omicron surge. It stems from the fact that it does.
“Generally speaking, the immune levels of our population will be much higher than entering the Omicron pandemic. It is not only those if Omicron and Delta are still circulating, but also that. It will help us again. Please help us with the new variants, “Swartzberg said. “How much will it depend on the availability of intervening drugs.”
This is probably because the coronavirus is unlikely to be completely gone.
“I’m completely expecting another version of the virus to come back,” Maldonado said. “These are scenarios that really bring uncertainty to what comes next.”
The following variants
The following variants can infect as much as or better than Omicron. It can give people more serious symptoms-or no symptoms at all.
“It’s not entirely clear what will happen next,” said Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco. He said the virus could mutate gradually, as it happened with alpha and beta variants. Or you could make a very big jump, like Delta or Omicron. “What’s next? It’s Claps.”
For example, the H1N1 influenza virus was a new virus when it launched one of the worst pandemics in history in 1918. It infected one-third of the world’s population and killed 50 million people.
The pandemic was over, but the virus remains with us today.
“It was the great-grandparents of all the H1N1 viruses we see each year,” Maldonado said. “Since then, they have many mutations, but they are from the same strain. Therefore, this virus can do the same.”
According to the CDC, the United States still loses an average of about 35,000 people a year from influenza. “And we continue our lives,” Swartzberg said. “To be precise, I don’t think it will go back.”
“That’s the best scenario,” says Maldonad.
In this flu-like scenario, Maldonado says the world needs to focus on protecting, vaccination, and ensuring that monoclonal antibodies and antivirals are available to people who are vulnerable to severe illness. He said. Vaccine companies need to create variant-specific vaccines so that people can get COVID-19 shots each year. The country also has to improve the test.
“Oral drugs and monoclonal antibodies are not good unless we know they are COVID positive,” says Swartzberg.
An intermediate scenario is when there are not enough antivirals or monoclonal antibodies to treat sick people, or when vaccine manufacturers are unable to make variant-specific vaccines fast enough.
The worst scenario is when the variant escapes vaccine and treatment protection.
“I don’t think it’s going to happen,” Maldonado said.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, said he hoped the scenario would not come true. “We can’t provide statistics about that possibility, but we need to be prepared for it.
“So we want the best and prepare for the worst.”
From the pandemic, “What would you do?”
The United States already has tools to limit new variants and end pandemics quickly, says Dr. Panagis Galiatsatos.
Galliazzatos, an assistant professor of medicine in Johns Hopkins Medicine and an expert in lung and emergency medicine, said:
Face masks and tests are also helpful.
Galiatsatos holds hundreds of discussions each year with community groups to encourage more people to vaccinate. He believes scientists must continue this outreach.
“We have the weapons to turn COVID into a terrible cold,” said Galiatsatos. “We have science. All people need access to interventions and we need to regain trust.”
According to the CDC, only about a quarter of the US population is fully vaccinated and boosted. The more people who have not been vaccinated, the more they will go to the hospital. The more cases you have, the more opportunities for new and dangerous variants.
“That’s why it’s like’What would you do?’,” Said Galliazzatos. “And I chose the kind that puts us in a better position to reach people, vaccinate more people, end this pandemic and learn to adapt to it. is.”
The end of the COVID pandemic?Experts say it can happen in 2022 after the Omicron wave
Source link The end of the COVID pandemic?Experts say it can happen in 2022 after the Omicron wave