First alert forecast: tracking major winter storms and snowfall forecasts for the tri-state area

new york — The CBS2 Weather Team emergency alarm Monday and Tuesday track an developing coastal storm (classic Nor’easter).

It’s the first (and possibly only) major winter storm of the season, but to say it’s difficult to predict is an understatement. Not only are there still model differences, but a very warm low level and no cold jets in front of it.

This means that snowfall is highly dependent on systems that generate their own cold through high precipitation and dynamic cooling. These storms are known for this and it happens! However, forecasting becomes very difficult, especially near the coast.

General timeline:

Showers and snow are possible Sunday evening (after midnight), primarily in the west and southwest of New York City.

Not bad for a Monday morning. Watch out for light rain (snow/mixed in NW NJ, Orange County, and north). This is from a primary storm approaching from the Midwest.

It’s still not crazy after a Monday day. A coastal depression begins to develop southwards, which, along with winds from the water (with ocean temperatures in the 40s), pushes warm air northwards, turning the scanty winter rainfall to the north and west into mediocre rain. increase. The exception is the higher elevations in the far north and west (Sullivan and Ulster counties), where winter persists.

The temperature will be in the 40’s. Light to moderate rain is expected in most areas during Monday evening’s commute.

A coastal storm will take over Monday night after sunset and continue overnight, moving northeast and intensifying rapidly. Rain can be heavy at times in New York City, especially to the south and east.

Most of the region will experience heavy precipitation late Monday night through Tuesday morning. Expect 1-2 inches of rain and puddles on the driveway. Snow in Sussex County pointing north through Orange County.

Tuesday morning commutes will be hit the hardest as cooler air wraps around the storm and the rain/snow line surges south and east. It is also where the greatest uncertainty exists regarding

Snow is possible in the city on Tuesday morning. It can also be mostly rain or a mixture of winter. You should monitor trends and focus on them. There is little confidence that the lower Hudson Valley and interior northeastern New Jersey (Morris, North Passaic, Rockland, etc.) will be mostly snow by then.

The wraparound snow will continue through Tuesday, with the most stability in the morning before turning to snow showers in the afternoon and evening.

Other notes:

Gusts on Tuesday can reach 30 to 40 mph and can get stronger near the coast, especially Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

A typical coastal flooding concern exists in Nor’easter at high tide, especially on the North Shore on Monday night.

As of Sunday morning, there are winter storm warnings for all points in Sussex, North Passaic, Orange, Putnam, North Fairfield and North. This is where you are most likely to see 6 inches or more of snow for sure. It’s going to be a moist and wet heavy snow. So some fallen trees and blackouts are certainly possible.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend and wait for the weather to unfold!