Biden is becoming less and less presidential by the day as Republican candidates are in turmoil

In the tavern brawl for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, polls show: Twice indicted Donald Trump still leads by a wide margin. But his challengers (i.e. Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, and most recently Chris Christie) seem to be growing by the day and are attacking him in ways they’ve never been before. . It has become personal, ugly, unpredictable and compelling to watch.

What’s happening on the Democratic side isn’t so high profile, but President Sleepy Joe Biden is being challenged by two weirdos who didn’t get elected.By all appearances, he will be the party’s nominee for 2024. Despite lacking mental and physical acuityvarious policy failures, or any repercussions stemming from the Republican investigation into Hunter Biden’s laptop.

it is difficult and near impossible oust an incumbent president seeking a second term — even an unqualified person like Sleepy Joe.

or maybe not. With tumbles on sandbags, slurred speeches in rose gardens, persistent inflation and endless border crises, Biden looks less and less fit for office by the minute.

Again, he is president. Party elders munching on cigars in back rooms no longer pick candidates. if he wants to nominate, it belongs to him. Unless someday, maybe soon, or minutes before he’s formally elected to the party’s convention next year, or when he’s going head-to-head with a Republican candidate, he can’t get out of bed. Or even more loss of the ability to speak or reason. Perhaps Dr. Jill Biden consults with the real doctor and she manages to convince her stubborn husband that she needs to retire.

The latter scenario sounds crazy, I know. Also, Wall Street sources who are heavily paid to evaluate such black swans told me it was clearly plausible and increasingly so.

They say it will throw Democrats and the country in particular into turmoil. If Biden doesn’t drop out sooner, but later. If he was nominated, or nearly nominated, party delegates would be pledged to Sleepy Joe, and most of them would be there for his maintenance. It is said that bartering and confusion begin from there.

His unpopular and apparently equally incompetent vice president, Kamala Harris, may be given the role as a candidate. Because no PC-obsessed Democrats can ignore women of color, no matter how unqualified they are.

That is to say, real heavyweights like Gavin Newsom of California and JB Pritzker of Illinois will do something strange during or immediately after the tournament, bend some of the rules and start the nomination race again. As long as you don’t do anything, it’s a different story.

It may sound like this, but this scenario is running around Wall Street. You hear it at private dinners with executives, and I know it. And there are more and more research reports circulating among financial advisors, such as one recently published by the investment firm Piper Sandler, which I obtained.

Why is Wall Street worried about possible civil war within the Democratic Party? That’s a good question worth considering. Wall Street has a love-hate relationship with volatility. Smart traders love it. They seek to extract value from volatile markets affected by uncertain fiscal and monetary policy or political turmoil. Not knowing whether a presidential candidate (and the current president is no less) has feelings can certainly shake markets and give traders an opening to capitalize on price volatility.

aversion to chaos

Meanwhile, Wall Street banks also handle retirement investments for many large corporations and the wealthy. They hate market turmoil and the resulting price fluctuations.

It is difficult to price a post-IPO secondary offering if the market does not reflect its true value. This is more common than you might think, when crowds panic over unexpected events like Biden’s last-minute abdication. The same is true for investors looking to build their retirement portfolios, which is why Wall Street is so worried about Sleepy Joe’s future.

And it could get even worse from a market volatility perspective. One of the doomsday scenarios Piper has addressed is for Biden to withdraw after being nominated. Given his declining health, it could happen again. It would be well before the presidential election that Mr. Harris, who is hated within his party, would declare himself a candidate. That could set off a nasty last-minute battle for ticket slots with lots of uncertainty for the market.

As Piper Sandler pointed out in his report, these extreme scenarios don’t necessarily have to happen. Biden may come to his senses and admit what more and more Americans believe: he’s not a healthy 80-year-old. At a time when this country is facing serious global threats (Chinese belligerence, Russian expansionism), an uncertain economy and, not to mention, unresolvable turmoil due to the inability to stay long, he is physically He is mentally weak. Presidential office.

He’ll probably be out of school by the end of the year — the sooner the better, according to Piper’s analysis. This gives Newsom and Pritzker time to participate in state ballots, making them less free for Democratic voters than Biden or Harris, who failed every task they were given (which borders on the top of the list). You will be given the opportunity to nominate someone who is not.

The American public, too, will be spared the ordeal of hearing her equally paltry attempts at profundity by making the clumsy Biden sound just like Churchill.

Crisis averted? it’s not. Because the market will be worried about the Republican candidate. A red-haired madman who has been picking fights on Twitter, inciting riots, and facing multiple indictments is a candidate, and perhaps he could be elected president in 2024.